New Social unidentified: forecasting statistical danielle Bleitrach

I told you in this blog we talk of social unidentified objects, I started with the voodoo doll and the actor who narcissism, fueled by hatred, because of politics and not policy, and its visceral hatred of fun and no fun, in short, the great joke of the death camps became symptom of the invalidity of elections, the field of politics turned into supermarket gondola. Today we must speak of another folklore for over a year all the figures on which the government bases its policy are false archifaux. The government forecast is like witchcraft still believes it more than we think. For a year Ms. Lagarde planting needles in the crisis and declared doll lyrics abracadabrantesques and continues. this does not so bad the government since all the polls give the winner in the European elections and not just in France but throughout Europe, the right wins. Try to shed light on these mysteries.


Nobody is interested in figures

Yet they have fallen and are époustoufflants. Growth in 2008, revised significantly to the decline, was not believed because the gross domestic product of the third quarter of 2008 of France, announced an increase of 0.1%, finally fell by 0.2% and in the fourth quarter it fell 1.5% after having been previously revised -1.1% (-1.2% in the first estimate). The second quarter figure was also revised, but more moderately (to -- 0.4% instead of -0.3%). Overall, growth was only 0.3% over the year 2008 instead of 0.7% previously estimated, compared with a figure for 2007 revised upwards to 2.3% instead of 2.1%.

I know that some of you already do then believe me word Revision 0.8 points in three quarters is considerable, a kind of earthquake statistics.

Blame the staticien, not quite as I'm sure you've forgotten, but in the last quarter of 2008, they had actually predicted a fall of 0.1% and the government had tanks and they had miraculously announced an increase of 0.1%, which was that France escaped the recession.

Abracadabra I say ....

But the sleight of passes is even more interesting because the figures released today say that not only France as the entire euro area went into recession but in fact we were already one year without knowing it. Not surprisingly well with a bit of company closures, redundancies, but we were told the opposite.

From magic I tell you the little frightened rabbit out of hat, the recession that flicker was there last year we were told!

We should not say that Europe is a disaster ...

On the eve of an election that's ... I personally disorder since they denied my negative vote on the constitutional treaty and they were eventually told to vote for the treaty by the National Assembly. All these people does not interest me more.

I am having many representatives in Parliament is a wonderful financial affairs for political parties, given the cost of an MEP, their emoluments and fees, but honestly this is not an argument in the light damage. Because the damage is readable watermarks numbers. Readable is a big word, since the statistical presentation is often made to flood the causes.

In essence, we must see that there are changes in estimates, considerable revision, and it must especially remember that the French economy began 2009 with a starting point even worse than announced. Abracadrabra Yet we continue to give the government forecasts eccentric, it has probably to do with the elections near and the fact that France is obviously driven into recession in the euro area, in Europe in a full collapse.

"France has suffered earlier this year, as our major economic partners, the adverse effects of the financial crisis and international economic which erupted last September. The changes in gross domestic product among our most important neighbors (- 1.9% United Kingdom - 1.8% Spain - 1.5% in the United States) show that our country is better than its main partners in a context which remains very poor, "notes Ms. Lagarde in a statement.

The very poor growth figures for Germany, made public Friday morning, confirmed this analysis. The Doo-Dah Berlusconi of Italy is the disaster, the Great Britain do not talk about it, about the under-developed eastern Europe, it is best to look the other way ... It is worse in other words Ms. Lagarde, certainly but why persist. Because the problem is there is every indication that the neo-liberal policy, which serves as a doctrine in the euro area, the dogma of the European Union, in whom the faith of Ms. Lagarde seemed unshakable us all to disaster.

Difficult to clearly say on the eve of a European election is not it?

The only thing that saves the government is that there is one to challenge the situation in which we continue to shoves. For these elections we are to merchants of sausage, one told me I put ketchup, the other offers of mustard, horseradish see, but they all sell the same sausage.

So we must not draw any conclusion from this fact: the evolution of yoy GDP was revised down 0.8 percentage point to -1.7% in the fourth quarter instead of -0.9%. With the new contract announced for the first quarter, the annual increases to -3.2% at end-March 2009 - a figure unprecedented in the series 50 years INSEE has posted on its website Friday.

Tomorrow will go much better, do we trust ..

We were a little below -3%, it will be rather closer to -3.5%, without changing the rest. And this level of -3% which corresponded more or less the consensus will probably be the upper range of forecasts in the coming weeks.

This is abstract, and few would translate into lost lives, jobs eliminated

. The government continues to defend him tooth and nail optimistic forecasts, while preparing already to require French economies in terms of public service, in short by continuing its policy. "In view of these developments, the Minister of Economy believes," as the Prime Minister, that GDP growth in France is expected to reach around - 3% annual average for 2009. "Recession would in this case, twice what the government expected and more important than those of 1974-1975 (- 1%) and 1993 (- 0.9%). The government will detail its new macroeconomic forecasts in conjunction with meetings of the Eurogroup of 8 June and the Ecofin Council on 9 June.

In its latest economic memorandum, dated March, INSEE expected a persistent contraction of GDP in the second quarter (- 0.6%). Should the second half is necessarily better than the first for the new government forecast (- 3%) is juste.On has doubts ... And already projected Ms Lagarde does not vallent Tripet ...

Of accounts in the first quarter, released Friday morning by INSEE showed that household consumption, traditionally the engine of French growth, resistance: it grew by 0.2% in the previous quarter. We must measure what it means and the role played in France for example by the existence of social security, how the expenditure on health and other benefits on which we seek to help maintain crop consumption continues anyway to prevent collapse. What the government of course would never identified.

Nor is the crisis will not attribute to its expensive banks or companies, for banks on the contrary it is banked on an improvement in the credit but the fact is that the recession is due to the continuation of the movement very important removal companies, on the other hand pulled down growth: changes in stocks have cost 0.8 percent of GDP in the first quarter, after 0.7 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008. The investment, the other component of domestic demand, shows a further decline (- 2.3%). The facts are there, if we consider there is a kind of structural economic patriotism, we find that consumers are holding their own but, with all due respect to Ms. Parizot, private enterprise is in defeatism, already retreated behind the Maginot Line to the enemy as in forty ... Yet she who gives money, which is distributed without counting ...

The fall in the volume of trade continues, whether in exports (- 6% - 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008) or imports (- 5.3% after - 3%). Our trade are primarily with Europe and the crisis that swept over this area explains the bad numbers.

In some sectors, the production of goods decreases dramatically - 12.8% for automobile production - 7.4% for intermediate goods - 6.4% for the production of capital equipment that was hitherto spared. Meanwhile, the deterioration of employment is clear: there was, in the first quarter 2009, destruction of 138 100 salaried jobs in the competitive sector, as against 117 300 in the previous quarter.

You see the confidence that can be done in the optimism of the Minister ... Mr Dubois, the head of economic department of INSEE is a duet with the Minister, he relies on the interruption of movement destockage companies, we do not know when but hopefully, as much of the plan hopes to boost U.S. should have "big impact" in the spring. I hope you follow through these figures it must be said very little a priori attractive, but tell you that they look unattractive part of the magical world in which we try to give you the policy. Since the opening of this blog, I try to tell you what the hidden language of the "experts", but it is clear that there should be a political party and is not concerned about the idea of putting an little more than ketchup on sausage European Union or offer few places to people who want us to eat sausage with many European rotten mustard so we do not feel the smell ...

The electoral paradox

I read an article in Rebelion Argentine newspaper Pagina 12 (1)
This article noted that "the" future is very promising for the European countries with strong social democratic tradition. Socialism runs eight European governments against 13 in 2001 and all the sides they appear in great decline. In France, polls fleurent disaster.

The European social democracy is in full retreat. the European elections of June 7 is as a threat to santion for socialist parties of the Old Continent with a focus on which all paradoxes: France. Even as the president french accumulate a huge percentage of unfavorable opinions, lists of the French right caracolent to that of the Socialists. According to recent polls, the Conservatives take the lead in voting intentions with 27% of the vote, and back crawl with the Socialists 22%, 13% of the centrist environmentalists 9% and the extreme left and extreme right with 7% each. These projections produce a double paradox: first the unpopularity of the Executive of Nicolas Sarkozy and the strong opposition that its measures do wake up to any vote of censure, two the global financial crisis has legitimized criticism of social democracy against the excesses of the system without that at the legitimacy of the vote translates into electoral progress. Three weeks before the election, the polls are feeling the disaster. If the June 7 polls predictions are confirmed it will be the first time since 1979, the Socialists do not the European consultation. With a projected 27% of the votes, lists of the conservative UMP party will win more than 10 points compared to 2000. The reading of the figures is even more cruel for socialist because they hoped that the European vote would operate as a message of rejection of the policy of nicolass Sarkozy. Nothing like this happens and PS electoral fate of the land with a disadvantage of seven points less compared to 2004. The PS can mobilize either for its proposals, nor of its candidates, or even the vote of censure. French socialism emerging weight of two rivals: the centrist who came to escape the embrace of the line where they were locked, and the extreme left, including the speech of denunciation and antisystème gaining adherents every month . The future is much more promising in the rest of Europe of strong social democratic tradition. European socialism led by eight government today against 13 in 2001 and, whatever the country is in recession frank. Routed in Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Greece and France, the historic social democracy has failed to forge a credible discourse that suppresses the effects of the so-called "social liberalism" in the style of former Prime Minister British PM Tony Blair. "(1)

T he paradox as always when it comes to data is only apparent. It is election statistics as those of economic forecasts, we can make them say what they want in the abstract because they often congregate in the medium of abstract phenomena which do not have the same meaning or the same scope.

We have seen that the statistics of the economy tended to hide under the idea of a recession that was also the European Union and policies in this context and on which socialists and the right showed a touching unanimously.

What do not say the polls on voting is that voting and why he refuses to vote or voting. Pagina's article 12 makes no mention of abstentions, noting the collapse of the PS and the relative health of the right, see what he defines as the french paradox, the unpopularity of the president and his government and the disavowal Yet opposition forces. Even the small burst of centrist and extreme-left has nothing to do with the wave of discontent as expressed in the protests, social movements. So if in these comments was precisely the key beyond the analysis: what is Europe and what you can expect a vote for this "thing" in politics as it is. So what are trying to identify the figures it is a social unidentified objects that would be democracy and the reality of the experience and hope to people.

There is no question of criticizing the statistics, the figures in a mass society are very useful, but it is necessary not to make grigris, they must be demystifier trying to understand their relationship with the facts that they are supposed to describe. Because the figures are just a mass society where the process through which individuals are expected to express their opinions, their citizens have been deeply destructured. Everything has been designed using the model of the aggregation of individual opinions give a sense, precisely the model of supply and demand according to Walras, the free market, but society does not like that and less than ever when it is necessary to change.